About George Dearing

George Dearing is an Austin-based consultant and writer with roots in enterprise software and digital media. He founded the Dearing Group and consults with companies on technology and sustainability. George has a B.A in Journalism and PR from the University of Houston - University Park. Follow him on Twitter here

Is It Possible To Crack The Code To Startup Success?

Fail_Road I’ve pulled back on the use of infographics lately, but I spotted one over the weekend that warranted a second look. It visualizes data from the Startup Genome, a project that takes a scientific approach to cracking the “innovation code.”

Teaming up with educators from Berkeley and Stanford, they looked at more than 3000 companies, analyzing the customer, product, team, business model and financials.

One of the big findings amongst the data was that almost 7 out of 10 companies failed due to premature scaling or inconsistency. Peeling back the data, the lessons seem really simple: don’t act like a big company. In a recent post, the project team described what they deem the ‘inconsistency’ element.

“One driving factor for inconsistency is too much capital, teams that are too large, bad team compositions, too little testing, etc. – pretty much everything a large company does, anticipating high certainty in their planning.”

And If you’re wondering how your team stacks up, take a look at their benchmarking tool, the Compass.

 

Internet Trend Watching With Mary Meeker

Technology trend watchers have some new data thanks to noted internet analyst Mary Meeker.

Her latest presentation at the annual Web 2.0 Summit (below) in San Francisco covered everything from the rise of mobile and local ecommerce, to the the evolution of computing interfaces.

A few things jumped out, particularly the stats on China’s internet growth. Clearly, we’re deep into the “it’s a global economy” mantra, especially for web businesses.

The other notable elements underscore how computing interfaces are being rewritten and the emergence of online audio, or sound, as some describe it in the context of internet apps. Both are already disrupting businesses models in every sector, from media and publishing to music and eCommerce — and fast. If you’ve picked up a new iPhone, you’ve already experienced the power of newer interfaces and the impact of audio on the user experience, thanks to the addition of Siri.

And if you want to compare Meeker’s internet data with a more traditional analyst firm, pull up some of Gartner’s strategic technology trends for 2012. As you’d expect, there’s more on the cloud and big data in their portfolio, but much of the trends they think will steal headlines mirror Meeker’s — mobile, the “internet of everything,” and of course, post-PC era computing.

Even in a tough economic environment, internet-driven businesses are showing real signs of strength. Some of the companies won’t endure, but the way they’re using the internet is arguably more important. It paints the picture of a market still rife with innovation, the lifeblood of startups everywhere.

KPCB Internet Trends (2011)

If You’re Not Excited About The Clean Energy Venture Summit, You Should Be.

Talk about timing. When a reminder about the upcoming Clean Energy Summit hit my inbox, I jumped at the chance to make the case for why Austin should be excited about this event. And while I’d be the first to advocate the benefits of a clean energy community, this isn’t a rah-rah session. Let’s look at what’s happening in clean energy to see why this year’s gathering should accelerate Austin’s clean energy future.

The Economic Climate

Clearly this isn’t the best of times for the economy. Unemployment is unfortunately unwavering, wages are stagnant, and now there’s even a potential poster child for clean energy failure with Solyndra’s collapse.

Even so, Cascadia Capital showed cleantech investments totaled $1.42 billion over 113 deals during Q2 2011. While that’s down 10 percent from Q2 2010, one thing to note was the shift to the “capital-efficient energy sector,” displacing investments in biomaterials and biofuels.

Big Fish Getting Involved A Good Sign.

A good barometer for clean energy is to also look at what established companies are doing to get a seat at the negotiating table. Fortune 500 companies are often a cleantech company’s first customer. And if they’re not a paying client, they often provide needed infrastructure or partnerships in key markets.

As an example, GE is aggressively investing in energy startups, telling the Wall Street Journal its deal flow for 2011 is already at 20, easily eclipsing its 2007 figure of 11.

That’s also consistent with data provided by UMASS economics Professor Nancy Folbre, who points out private venture capital has quietly moved towards the clean sector, rising to 16 percent in 2010 from 2 percent in 1995.

The other footnote to GE’s activity, and one startups should pay attention to, is its approach to cultivating its clean energy portfolio. Besides obvious industry partnerships, it created the Ecomagination program, aimed at spurring ideas to help the environment. And while there’s a PR veneer to it, GE is no doubt getting a leg up on what’s happening in the trenches, an innovation-driven sneak-peek if you will.

Where Are The Opportunities? How Is Austin Positioned?

Austin’s tech lineage is strong, particularly in software and semiconductors. A good start would be bridging that expertise. If we look at comparisons to the rise of information technology in the United States, the picture is clearer.

BrookingsMark Muro at Brookings Institution sized up how things might play out for clean technologies, making just such comparisons.

“The aggregate green economy, which includes jobs in the public sector and waste management, is just under half the size of the IT producing industry, but measured by jobs, “cleantech” is similar in size today as the computer manufacturing industry (162,000) and roughly half the size of the semiconductor industry (370,000).”

Those numbers are compelling for a few reasons. One, it shows cleantech isn’t as far behind as some pundits would have us believe. Not to mention the computer industry isn’t exactly tearing it up these days. Can you say Tablets? Heck, the most exciting innovation I’ve seen lately is proof that our computers are doubling their energy efficiency every 18 months. I’d also bet those semiconductor numbers decrease as processors increasingly move to smaller, more mobile devices. Unfortunately for some that might correlate to less manufacturing and fewer jobs.

Mr.Muro capped of his post with another important observation.

“..many solar producers are classified in the IT-sector as semi-conductor manufactures; smart-grid technologies are also heavily IT-based. It’s therefore not unimaginable that, with a few strong years of growth and innovation, cleantech could be large enough to fuel considerable increases in aggregate economic growth.”

One of the takeaways here is the breadth and potential depth of clean ecosystem and markets. Famously, many Silicon Valley companies have ‘pivoted’ to capitalize on other markets. The point is, Austin’s clean energy companies have plenty of ways to innovate in a sector that’s tied to so many converging forces. Today’s motherboard producer might be tomorrow’s solar fabricator.

Cities, Infrastructure Provide Opportunities

Getting more hyperlocal, there’s other reasons to pay attention to clean economy activity, not the least of which is better paying jobs. Here’s a few charts I pulled from the Brookings’ clean economy report. The first one is self-explanatory. There’s growth in our own backyard.


In the second image, you’ll notice that Austin ranks 36th when you compare the largest 100 metropolitan areas. But look at the growth. The growth metric moved Austin up a number of notches and also shows clean jobs grew more than 5% each year. Not too shabby. And before you scoff at the annual wages, we’re looking at you Mrs. software engineer, it’s important to keep it in perspective. Wages are higher compared to all other Austin jobs Brookings analyzed.


One other notable piece in the Brookings report was the huge emphasis on energy efficiency. It was the largest category analyzed by Brookings, capturing 13 out of the 39 distinct segments. That’s called bulletin board material if you’re keeping score. (Sorry for the sports cliche, but it is football season)

It shouldn’t be that surprising. Old buildings, old schools, all of them could use some sort of energy upgrade. Couple that with new commercial and residential activity and it’s no wonder ABI Research projects cities will spend $39.5 billion by 2016 to become smarter. The other data point I like to point out is research from the University of Massachusetts that estimated roughly 15 jobs are created for every $1 million invested in energy efficiency.

City Mayors Get Behind Clean Energy And Efficiency

Another positive sign for CEVS is having the eyes and ears of local government. That was echoed in the form a recent letter to Washington from U.S. Mayors, entitled a “Common-Sense Jobs Agenda.” Local officials analyzed parts of Obama’s Jobs Act, emphasizing how the clean economy can spur job growth and stoke the economic fires.

The group (Mayors) has been vocal recently, penning an earlier report (June 2011) from its national conference, in which 86 percent of the 396 cities surveyed saw building retrofits and clean energy conversion as economic priorities.

So whether you’re a startup, an investor or you just want to see Austin continue to evolve, there’s plenty of reasons to get behind clean energy. Get out and support these companies, your grandkids will thank you.

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Event Details

The 5th Annual Clean Energy Venture Summit and Cleantech Open Regional Judging & Awards is scheduled on September 28-29, 2011 at the AT&T Executive Education & Conference Center in Austin, Texas.

Keynote Speakers

Kevin Skillern, Managing Director of Venture Capital GE Energy
Bob Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, Partner at Polaris Ventures

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ATC’s Survey Results Show CEOs Still On The Hunt For Talent

With unemployment still high and the U.S. economy still tight, it’s always a bit surprising to see companies struggling to staff up. But that’s exactly what Austin Technology Council’s recent survey results from more than a hundred CEOs showed. I looked at three of the top findings and tried to uncover some of the reasons why.

77% of respondents agree that there will be a shortage of technically skilled talent in the future.

Attendees and panelists certainly saw eye-to-eye on this issue, as evidenced by a panel with STEM Education as the backdrop for discussion.Samsung’s Public Affairs & GC Catherine Morse mentioned it’s focusing on “Texas Talent” for manufacturing and mentioned the importance of regional universities as a pipeline for talent. That point was taken in another direction by Microsoft’s Cameron Evans, CTO for the company’s education unit in the United States. Evans thinks Colleges of Education are the next battleground to facilitate change in the workforce. He argued putting skills in teachers’ hands will be what fuels the jobs we need over next the 20 years.  A recent visualization from GOOD and University Of Phoenix compiled some additional STEM-related  data, much of it echoing Evans’ points.

STEM Dilemma

In a National Journal article covering a panel from the President’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, Facebook’s COO also mentioned STEM challenges. “Echoing concerns raised by tech firms for years, Sandberg said that the U.S. needs better graduation rates and must get more students interested in pursuing science, technology, engineering, and math degrees. “We are not investing for the future,” she said. “We are falling behind in every way possible.” Immigration reform was another hot topic during the discussions, with AOL’s former chief Steve Case urging less restrictions on visas and green cards for foreign workers. That, he said, “is the only way to get [to the] issue of high-skilled workers in the next 12 months.” That seems like an interesting statement as U.S. employment hovers around 9% and seems to imply there’s a shortage of skilled U.S. workers. An interesting debate for another time.

71% of respondents agree that there is a shortage of technically skilled talent at the present time in Austin.

Talent shortages seem to be a consistent theme in tech-focused cities, and certainly ones with a lineage of supporting startups. I scratch my head a bit on this one. The Census Bureau shows Texas’s population increased by 20.6 percent to 25,145,561 from 2000 – more than twice the 9.7 percent national rate. Austin’s population had an almost identical increase, rising 20.4 percent since 2000, so raw human capital isn’t the issue. We can look at it another way. Brookings analyzed 2010 Census data and compared trends in cities and suburbs, classifying certain metro areas as its “Next Frontiers.”

“At one end of the spectrum lie nine Next Frontier metros, the demographic success stories of the 2000s.  These places are fast growing, rapidly diversifying, and outperforming the nation in educational attainment. Eight of these nine metro areas lie west of the Mississippi River, with Washington, D.C. as the lone Eastern exception.”



next_frontiers

Brooking’s analysis opens up several discussion points. With diversity and the educational pieces presumably in place, what then are the  obstacles to acquiring the right talent? Are companies just terrible at recruiting? Are all the good engineers are in Silicon Valley or overseas? Perhaps even more provocative, are companies really investing in people and training their employees to become more highly-skilled instead of sourcing things out to get the razor-thin margins necessary to sustain their models? Whatever the case, the NYT surfaced data from the National Employment Law Project [below] showing low-end jobs are actually the ones making a comeback, again leading me to question how aggressive some companies are really approaching the recruiting process.

“The report by the National Employment Law Project, a liberal research and advocacy group, found that while 60 percent of the jobs lost during the downturn were in midwage occupations, 73 percent of the jobs added since the recession ended had been in lower-wage occupations, like cashier, stocking clerk or food preparation worker.”    


Net change in occupational employment during and after the Great Recession.

As for the engineering note, Gowalla’s CEO Josh Williams cleared up some of the speculation, saying the local company hires more than half its engineers from the Bay Area. You can debate the pros and cons of that, but it seems like digging a little deeper in your own backyard might be a good idea. If we look at what industries are creating jobs in Texas, there’s another storyline. A recent Wall Street Journal report showed what areas are really creating jobs.

“The fastest-growing employment sector in Texas during his [Rick Perry] tenure has been mining, which includes the booming oil and gas industry, up 63% in past decade, or 94,000, to 243,000 jobs.”

Those figures don’t exactly paint the picture of a diversified job sector, especially  when you compare to other industry segments like information and manufacturing. Both were down 22% and 33% respectively. It forces the question of where we’re putting our resources and investments. Are we backing the right entrepreneurs in areas that are actually creating valuable products with a real global market base? Perhaps another way to look at it is to consider how Stratfor’s CEO and futurist George Freidman described high-tech. During his keynote, he said if you’re not fighting degenerative diseases, utilizing robotics, maintaining productivity, or lowering energy costs, you’re not really high-tech. Now granted the productivity piece is very broad, but you get the sense of which areas could have real longevity.

More than half of respondents believe that talent issues have limited their organization’s productivity and efficiency.

One of the ways to address talent concerns is to look at where the pipeline originates. During one of the panels, Calxeda’s Barry Evans mentioned the importance of attracting big corporations, many of which set up R&D centers and  bring engineering and business talent along. Some of the bigger tech and internet companies can also help fill the talent crunch void. TopProspect compiled information available from companies started within the last five years and combined that with company size and publicly available funding data. The infographic below, though valley-centric, shows having a cubicle at Google makes you a pretty good candidate for getting funding. But whatever stock you put it into data like this, it’s clear that whether it’s software, semiconductors, or finance, big companies are fertile grounds for breeding entrepreneurs and jumpstarting innovation. I’d guess a decent percentage of the last ten or twelve Austin-based startups pulled from the talent pool of large corporations.

tech_giants_startups

It’s an interesting dilemma for startups in general. They have to battle with more established companies (industries) and yet these same companies are also their customers and potential partners. You can see the rest of the survey results here.

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Foursquare Mayorships Are So Yesterday. Who’s The Mayor Of Cleantech?

wind energy is good

Image by George Dearing via Flickr

 

With dwindling resources and tight budgets, local governments might not be the first place to look if you’re a startup pitching clean technology. The data tells a different story, however.

An April survey of almost 400 mayors in all 50 states, showed 75% of cities plan to increase cleantech deployments over the next five years.

Some of the key findings paint a vivid picture of what’s motivating the heads of city.

For starters, energy efficiency, while it may lack green glamour, is an immediate win. Cities are realizing that efficiency retrofits using better automation tools and dashboards are sending savings right to the bottom line. In other words, smarter buildings are becoming the norm for smarter companies.

• LED and other efficient lighting (76%), low-energy building technologies(68%), and solar systems to generate electricity (46%) are the top three choices among mayors as the most promising technologies for reducing energy use and carbon emissions.

On Wednesday, the Cleantech Group released its investment numbers for Q1 showing energy efficiency was the growth highlight, even as overall investments dipped more than 30% for the period.

“Our global VC numbers point to continued strength in energy efficiency, which tops the charts in both amount invested and deal count,” said CEO Sheeraz Haji, in a prepared statement.

U.S. CONFERENCE OF MAYORS LOGO  U.S. Conference of Mayors.  (PRNewsFoto/U.S. Conference of Mayors) WASHINGTON, DC UNITED STATESAnother key finding in the mayors’ report was related to climate change, showing one in three cities have already configured its effects into capital planning and capital improvement programs.

That should signal a strong opportunity for startups offering cleantech and renewable solutions. Corporations will be bulking up to serve local governments as they look for technology support and infrastructure upgrades. Young companies offering sustainability software, smart grid tools and of course IT-driven solutions are poised to capture significant business. To achieve that, startups need to dig deep to understand what’s really driving local governments to adopt a resilience strategy. Ironically, it seems, cities might ultimately lead much of the activity taking place around ‘adaptation.’

Maria Gallucci at SolveClimate News had a recent piece referencing a June report called Caring for Climate, [PDF] that echoed the point.

“While 86 percent of the companies surveyed said that investing in adaptation solutions is a viable business opportunity, less than one-third are taking action to build climate resilience in the communities where they operate.”

The Central Texas Connection

ATC_CEO_Summit At the ATC’s CEO Summit in May, Austin  Mayor Lee Leffingwell mentioned a number of things that puts Austin in the center of many of the reported trends. During his presentation, he mentioned Life Sciences and clean energy as two of the biggest areas of job growth in Austin.

The mayor stressed better transportation and resource management, emphasizing sustainable energy approaches and better water management.  In a matter-of-fact manner, Leffingwell  told more than a hundred CEOs, “those are things you have to plan for 50 years down the road.”

Stratfor’s CEO and author George Friedman, who also spoke at the conference, said attracting R&D centers for industries like biotech and life sciences would be critical for cities like Austin.

“Don’t become silicon hills — attract industries like biotech — it’s important to know who your target is,” he said.

A neighboring Austin community is showing how that’s done.
The Pflugerville Community Development Corp. has a deal in place with local electric vehicle (EV) company Community Cars Inc. If the EV company meets certain commitments for establishing its local presence, more than $100,ooo in funds will be available to the Austin company founded last year by Austin attorney Stacy Zoern.

These types of initiatives show what can be achieved when local officials have a proactive approach towards cleantech. They’re already trying to lure startups to city centers, so why not go the extra mile to ensure it’s a sustainable choice for long-term growth? That’s a win for everyone.

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Disclosure [] Footnote

My spouse is an employee of Siemens and was uninvolved, and unaware, that this report was underwritten by Siemens.

Mayors Report – Clean Energy For US Cities

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4 Things For Austin Startups To Watch

It’s tough keeping up with the macro forces that can shape the strategy and execution of startups. Here’s a few things to keep an eye on as the talent wars continue and products and services are developed and refined.

Software is still big. Software in the cloud is bigger. 

It’s not realistic to think many startups will come out of the gate with enterprise software tools, but it’s a steady growth opportunity. And it’s not just relegated to the Oracles and IBMs of the world.
Smart young companies are thinking about how Gartner‘s growth numbers [below] might trickle into their coffers. ERP growth should signal to startups that companies are back in a spending mode and looking for solutions. ERP and line of business apps can only address so much. Find out where the gaps are and a need will surface.
Growth in sales of business software – FT.com 

Business software sales are growing strongly as global economies emerge from recession and companies begin to invest in IT infrastructure again in order to reduce costs, improve efficiency and expand markets. Figures published by Gartner, the IT research firm, suggest that worldwide enterprise software spending is likely to grow by 9.5 pe rcent this year and top $267bn, up from $244bn last year.

Now back to the cloud. Austin’s own vConstruct is proving the cloud’s periphery can be a profitable one. If you know their model, it’s not built around a business app, per se, but a business pain point: migration.

The cloud also hangs off ERP really well. I know a huge engineering company that will practically fund the product development for at least two startups that provide enterprise integration tools. The theme around software is simple. There’s a huge customer base [ERP] and when coupled with the could, an even bigger ecosystem.

You can see other growth elements by looking at some analysts’ projections.  Forrester thinks that by 2016, 196 million U.S. consumers will be on a personal cloud and 97 million of us will pony up and pay via subscription or a one-time purchase.  Moreover, look at the venture community itself. Reuters reports VC heavyweight Kleiner Perkins is considering a new fund specifically for the segment.

Kleiner Perkins weighing fund targeting the cloud 

SAN FRANCISCO | Fri Jun 24, 2011 3:43pm EDT SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Top venture-capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers is considering creating a specialized fund that focuses on cloud-based technologies. “We’re big believers in the cloud,” Kleiner’s Matt Murphy told Reuters on Thursday evening.

Before hitting the publish button in WordPress, I thought it made sense to include a blip on Redmond’s cloud roll-out. [below]

They’ve made all of the apps you love (some you hate) more data-center friendly. And it’s more than a volley back at Google Apps, it underscores the growing impatience towards the maintenance required for on-premise servers and software. That should signal opportunity to startups, certainly ones building apps for virtualization, productivity and mobile access.

Lastly, similar to Salesforce but a half-decade behind, Microsoft will strive to develop a deep ecosystem of partners that can build apps and deliver services around its cloud play. Startups should benefit from that and the continued wars between the major players.

Microsoft rolls out Office in the cloud 

SEATTLE | Mon Jun 27, 2011 8:49pm EDT SEATTLE (Reuters) – Microsoft Corp is making its biggest move into the mobile, Internet-accessible world of ‘cloud’ computing this week, as it takes the wraps off a revamped online version of its hugely profitable Office software suite.

The Post-PC Era. It’s Not Just Mobile And The Desktop’s Death.


It’s clear that computing has quite a life beyond the personal computer. Some call it the post-PC era, but arguably that’s misleading. Smartphones and tablets are just as common at work as they are on our bedside tables. Forrester’s Sarah Rotman Epps had an insightful look recently [below] at what that term really means. Hint: It ain’t about the death of that laptop on your desk. She identified it as more of a “shift.”


*Stationary to ubiquitous.

* Formal to casual.

* Arms-length to intimate.

* Abstracted to physical.

 

Those shifts bode well for startups in categories across the board, including gaming, mobile, and digital media, among others.

There’s a few companies already blending the best of mobile and media to capture a market. Startups like OnSwipe, Flipboard and Zite have capitalized on tablet-based apps and consumption patterns.

Some mobile purists might tell you not to include tablets in the mobile genre. What’s more important however, is what tablets signal. There’s a convergence in content and platforms that’s been almost solely sparked by the iPad. The ubiquity of content, (think Netflix) along with the changing nature of media consumption (third screen) creates plenty of opportunities. Just this morning, LinkedIn announced an elegant integration with Flipboard that sucks in pertinent industry feeds at the swipe of a finger. I bet that type of development wasn’t on the roadmap even a year ago.

Startups would do well to probe deeper in the areas of digital publishing, (see Cory Doctorow’s piece below) and content delivery. For digital publishing, pay attention to the quicker pace of publishing — the Twitter effect, if you will. I’d argue that had a lot to do with Tumblr catching WordPress.

The bottom line is brands and publishers are always looking for better ways to create and manage content. And with app stores, multiple channel demands, and a fight for relevance, dollars will follow for better management, personalization and curation.

 

The “Post-PC” Era: It”s Real, But It Doesn”t Mean What You Think It Does | Forrester Blogs 

Computing is changing. The news last week showed that loud and clear, as Microsoft bet big on Skype’s voice and video technology and Google announced partnerships with Samsung and Acer to build laptops running its Chrome operating system. These developments point to a future where computing form factors, interfaces, and operating systems diversify beyond even what we have today.
Publishers and the internet: a changing role | Cory Doctorow | Technology | guardian.co.uk 

Connecting with the audience is still publishing’s aim, but does the internet make it distribute first and publish later? Once in a while, someone will say something that’s so self-evidently true, and so unexpected, that you’ll spend the rest of your life working through its implications.

And If there were any doubts about mobile adoption, especially the uptake of more powerful smartphones, Google’s Andy Rubin provided some compelling data in a recent Tweet. [below]

 

For those tuned-in to mobile, you know there’s more to the untethered world than the Jesus phone and its platform. Startups aren’t just building apps, they’re thinking about interfaces to multiple platforms, enterprise integration and of course, vertical apps. Austin’s own Kinita has an intriguing model that takes some of those elements and deploys native mobile apps as a service. That’s smart because you don’t have take sides on the Web v. App Internet argument. Do both. Or better yet, have the flexibility to architect a solution that works the best for your customer’s model.

There are now over 500,000 Android devices activated every day, and it’s growing at 4.4% w/w
Arubin
June 28, 2011
We are in a post-PC era, as consumers are now toting ever more powerful electronic devices http://econ.st/jLo98p
TheEconomist
May 19, 2011

Hotbeds For High-Tech Growth

We can also take a regional look at what some of the data from Harvard’s Cluster Mapping Project tells us about industry growth. Besides the usual big footprint for the Lone Star State, startups have the luxury of pulling talent from a solid cross-section of industries. A deeper look also shows how Austin’s desire to be one of the next great innovation hubs might play out. Besides the regional proximity to big business cities like Houston and Dallas, Austin companies can almost cherry-pick from the best of emerging tech. Whether it’s renewables and biotech, or aerospace and manufacturing, the data seems to support Austin is in the right place at the right time.

What’s Getting Funded?

Another element has to do with our favorite “F” word, funding. Looking at *data compiled by GigaOm, I clipped a few items from the infographic showing which sectors are getting cash and where they’re based. The sector chart would be my bubble alert if there were such a thing.

Besides Groupon, can any of you name a social commerce startup? If you can, you should be an analyst. And I’d be licking my chops if I were in the security space, as it musters only 2 percent. I guess those VC and Angels haven’t picked up their iPad recently and read about the rise of hacktivists.

[*data // Crunchbase, Startupquote, CB Insights,INC]

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